Insights or Instinct ?

The first time I meet a new client I like to get a sense of the type of business manager and decision maker they are. I ask them to complete a profile or questionnaire covering things like assortment decisions, customer needs, strategy and planning. I want to see how they are currently approaching these types of issues so that we can have a conversation that's relevant to their needs, business, and goals.

I find that the longer they have been in business, the more their gut instincts come into play when making decisions. This is what I love about working with small businesses. It's challenging! The business owner who has been in the same location for over 20 years, knows his/ her customer personally and actually sees their product or service sold in person, is undoubtedly the expert when it comes to everyday decisions and I want to learn and get to know what makes their business unique.

I think about my own experiences managing different categories for small and large companies over long periods of time. I too, became the expert leveraging sales history, market trends, supplier insights, and focus groups. It's when sales decline that it seems something significant needs to change and the best thing to do is take a risk, trust your gut and go for it.

In the world of small business strategy, we often hear two opposing philosophies:

• “Follow the data.”

• “Trust your gut.”

Both sound smart. Both can be dangerous. The magic happens when both are used to complement the other.

The Numbers don't lie but data has limits.

• It only reflects the past.

• It can’t capture nuance, emotion, or emerging shifts.

• It often misses early signals.

• It can be interpreted in ways that support almost any narrative.

• Waiting for “enough data” can become a way to delay hard decisions.

  
  

Gut instinct alone is risky.

No risk no reward ? What if your intuition is shaped by

• Personal bias

• One loud customer

• Fear

• Overconfidence

  
  

My goal with my clients is to listen, learn, and work together to get to a tailored, personalized, and integrated strategy driven by......Informed Intuition

The most effective strategy is one that is led by years of experience, data questions, and a clearly defined desired outcome

1. Use Data to Diagnose and provide a starting point

• What is happening in the patterns we see ?

• Where are we winning?

• Where are we losing?

• How is our customer changing

2. Use Intuition and Experience to Interpret

• Why might this be happening?

• What are we not seeing?

• What doesn't feel right?

• What value can we bring to more customers ?

3. Test Instead of Debate

When gut and data disagree, don’t argue - test and see.

Run:

• A limited pilot

• A small launch

• A controlled price test

• A messaging A/B

Small businesses have the advantage of flexibility without approval turnaround time, or limitations of another division's process.

When to Lean More on Data

Lean heavier on data when:

• Cash flow is tight

• Margins are unclear

• You’re scaling operations

• You’re forecasting inventory

• You’re evaluating marketing ROI

Numbers protect sustainability.

When to Lean More on Intuition

Lean more on instinct when:

• Entering a new category

• Developing a brand voice

• Choosing partnerships

• Spotting early trends

• Making hiring decisions

Informed Intuition is a learned discipline

• Look at the numbers honestly.

• Admit when they’re incomplete.

• Trust your informed instincts.

• And move decisively

Because growth doesn’t happen from certainty. It happens from thoughtful action.